$1.8T
annual revenue produced by Americans working alone
Package contents
Open the documents in this package
These links open the files sitting next to this page inside the Entrepreneurs_Allies folder. Keep the folder together after unzipping.
| Document | Language | Open |
|---|---|---|
| Full report — Below the Iceberg (29 pp., VMA branded, Private & Confidential) | EN | PDF · Word · Markdown |
| Tam rapor — Buzdağının Altı (29 s., VMA markalı, Private & Confidential) | TR | PDF · Word · Markdown |
| Executive deck — 12 slides, closing with the street-coins credo | EN | PowerPoint · PDF |
| Yönetici sunumu — 12 slayt, "Sokağın coin'leri" kapanışıyla | TR | PowerPoint · PDF |
| Space & Capacity Model — 176 live formulas: the 100K→92K equation, 1,001 positions, anchor mix, parking program, price benchmarks, location framework | EN | Excel |
| Alan & Kapasite Modeli — 176 canlı formül: 100K→92K denklemi, 1.001 pozisyon, anchor karması, otopark programı, fiyat kıyası, lokasyon çerçevesi | TR | Excel |
Headline metrics
Eight numbers that carry the whole thesis
$35/day
Costco's space fee for a vendor-run demo — proof a daily-counter market exists
The iceberg
The tip is served; the mass is not
| Layer | Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tip | Employer businesses (2023) | 5.58M | Census BDS 2023 |
| Mass | Nonemployer businesses (2023) | 30,427,808 | Census NES 2023 |
| Mass | Combined revenue / share of GDP | $1.8T · 6.4% | Census NES 2023 |
| Mass | Share of all US establishments | 78.4% | Census, Jul 2025 |
| Mass | Annual growth 2012–23 (vs employer firms) | 2.7% vs 1.1% | Census, Jul 2025 |
| Mass | Average revenue per firm | ≈$59K | Derived (NES 2023) |
| Mass | Women-owned share (2022) | 12.7M · 42.7% | Census NES-D, May 2025 |
| Formation | Applications 2025 / projected employer conversions | ~500K/mo vs ~29K/mo | Census BFS |
Reading: every month ~470,000 Americans file to start a business and never reach employer scale. They are not failing — they lack a counter, a customer and a place.
Demand — who is under the water
Six segments, one shared constraint: no place
| Segment | Size | Money signal | Constraint | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home producers (Etsy) | 5.6M active sellers | $3.5B home & living GMS | 97% home-based, 82% solo; no physical vitrine | Etsy FY2025 |
| Cottage-food makers | producers doubled since 2020 | ≈$2B market (2024, est.) | Legal in 50 states; sales tied to home/fairs; only 28 states allow online | Institute for Justice · Nat'l Ag Law Center |
| Service entrepreneurs | 370,100 fitness trainers | $46,180 median wage | +12% growth 2024–34; always in someone else's space | BLS OOH |
| Artists & makers | 2.5M + 333K secondary | gallery cut 40–50% | 34% self-employed vs 9% economy-wide; no permanent selling floor | NEA |
| Recent graduates | 42% underemployed · 5.6% unemployed | 51% of 18–29s want to found | Performing arts 63.9%, fine arts 58.9% underemployment | NY Fed Q2 2026 · LendingTree 2026 |
| Digital micro-brands | 215K active on TikTok Shop | small-biz sales +66% (2025) | US live-selling only 14% of GMV (China: 70–80%) | TikTok Shop, May 2026 |
| Global micro-sellers | 50% of Amazon's active sellers are Chinese | US 3P sellers: $157B GMV | 62% of 2024 new registrations; all seeking an onshore door | Marketplace Pulse 2025 |
| Independent workforce | 64–73M people | $1.27T freelance earnings | 38–45% of workforce; Gen Z 53% freelancing | Upwork · MBO Partners 2025 |
The wall
Why the mass never got served
| Barrier | Number | What it means | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record rents | $25.5/sqft NNN | All-time high; availability 4.8%; median 7.5 months to lease; terms 5–10 years | CoStar Q1 2025 |
| Primitive pop-up market | $16.0B | Split across 42,553 firms; no player above 5%; 0.3% CAGR 2020–25 | IBISWorld 2025 |
| Temporary retail mix | $80B | 60% of it is flea markets; 44% of pop-ups launched under $5K | Capital One Shopping 2026 |
| Craft-fair lottery | $100–250/day | Typical single-day sales; "10x the booth fee" counts as success | Seller-reported analyses |
| Broken side-hustle math | $200/mo median | Down from $250; 28% earn $1–50 — desire alive, channel broken | Bankrate 2025 |
Government & civil society
Capital, rules and advice — never a place
| Instrument | Who | Scale | Outcome | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSBCI (relaunched) | US Treasury / states | $10B | 100% loan & equity instruments; $2.6B disbursed by end-2023; GAO flagged multi-year delays; 335 state programs; deadline 2030 | Treasury · GAO 2023/24 |
| Community Navigator Pilot | SBA (ARPA) | $100M | 51 grants; ended 2024, not renewed; OIG: no client targets set, data quality limited reliability | SBA · SBA OIG 24-25 |
| SBA Microloans | SBA | up to $50K | GAO 2019: weak performance measurement; small scale; no place component | GAO-20-49 |
| Cottage-food reform | All 50 states + DC | caps up to $250K (FL) | 34 states + DC expanded since 2015; producers doubled; ≈$2B market — proof that removing one barrier unlocks supply. Selling place still missing | Institute for Justice |
| De minimis repeal | Federal | $800 threshold ended | China/HK May 2, 2025; all countries Aug 29, 2025; permanent Jul 1, 2027 — forced global sellers to hold stock onshore | CBP · CNBC 2025 |
| Microfinance & mentoring | Kiva, CDFIs, SCORE, SBDCs | capital + advice | Valuable, none provide a permanent, daily-priced physical channel | Kiva · SCORE |
The finding: every instrument targets the entrepreneur's pocket or head. Not one targets the ground under their feet. The gap is spatial — and that is the gap Atmosphere fills.
Brand Ally — the onshore stock
The goods arrived before the orders did
| Evidence | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese overseas warehouses worldwide | 2,500+ · 30M m² | China Customs / Qiushi 2024 |
| NJ warehouse space leased by China Logistics Group | 5.6M sqft (3x 2023) | Savills |
| Prologis net new US leases that were tariff-driven (Q3 2024) | 1 in 5 | Prologis |
| JD Logistics bonded/overseas warehouses | ≈100 · 10M sqft, doubling | DC Velocity, Oct 2024 |
| Shein & Temu share of daily US de-minimis parcels (2023) | >30% | House Select Committee |
| Temu US fulfillment | local warehouses only (May 2025) | CNBC |
| Mall space vs warehouse cost (conversion era) | as low as $4 vs ≈$6.5/sqft | CNBC/CBRE 2019 |
| Chinese brands going physical in the US | Miniso 2x stores · Pop Mart +80% overseas | Malls.com 2026 |
The chain of proof: stock is onshore, warehouses are expensive and invisible, mall boxes are cheap and visible, brands want physical. Atmosphere's Brand Ally turns the warehouse into a showroom and the showroom into sales: line 05 visible stock + line 01 tables + line 03 live selling + customs/IOR service.
Supply — the box
Distress is concentrated exactly where we hunt
| Format | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Class A malls | 95% occupied — not our target | Green Street via C&W |
| Class B malls | 250 malls (28% of all), 89% occupied, traffic −9% vs 2019 — primary target | Cushman & Wakefield |
| Class C malls | 72% occupied · 13.3% vacant | Capital One Shopping 2026 |
| US enclosed malls | ~2,500 in the 1980s → ~700–1,200 today → <900 by 2028 | Multiple trackers |
| Store closures | 8,270 (2025) · 30M+ sqft closing in 2026 · Macy's closing 150 | Coresight 2026 |
| Mall space demolished (2025) | 2.6M sqft | Capital One Shopping |
Honest tension, stronger thesis: overall retail vacancy is historically low (4–5%) — which is exactly why splitting a distressed box among 300 tenants out-earns any single lease.
The price anchor
Costco already runs a daily-counter market
Costco's sampling floor is operated by Club Demonstration Services (CDS, owned by Advantage Solutions) in 550+ warehouses. Brands — not Costco — pay for the counter. The tariffs below set Atmosphere's pricing band.
| Product | Price per day | Terms | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco space fee (vendor-run demo) | $35 | Approved vendors only (≈$1M+ sales expected); own staff; consignment | CDS Vendor Packet |
| Atmosphere daily table — entrepreneur | $60–200 | Open to anyone; dynamically priced by Fifth Signal (RevPAM) | Atmosphere model |
| Atmosphere daily table — CPG test brand | $150–250 | Same table, second tariff — parallel to CDS official rates | Atmosphere model |
| CDS/Sam's official demo day | $150–250 + product | Approved vendors; CDS/Product Connections staff | Street Teams Co 2026 |
| Agency demo (staff incl.) | $250–600 | Any brand; 4–6h trained specialist; product +$50–200 | Street Teams Co 2026 |
| Costco Roadshow (day equivalent) | $714–2,143 | $5–15K/week/warehouse; consignment; own staff; 10+ roadshows → listing decision | Think Nectar |
| Market signal | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Advantage Solutions experiential revenue (Q2 2026) | $416.3M · +19% YoY · events +18% | Q2 2026 call |
| Demo conversion vs digital ads | 15–35% vs 2–3% | Street Teams Co |
| Atmosphere line 01, base case (300 tables · 15% CPG mix · 55% occupancy) | ≈$9.2M/yr indicative · ≈$384/sqft — 15x market rent | Space & Capacity Model (Excel), indicative |
Location
Two tracks: Trader Joe's footprints, Gen Z density
| Track | Rule | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Track A — 42 TJ states + DC | 661 stores = a verified conscious-consumer map. Every B/C box in a TJ county and its neighbors enters the pool. No distance limits. | ScrapeHero 2026 |
| Track B — 8 states without TJ (AK, HI, MS, MT, ND, SD, WV, WY) | Score shifts to Gen Z share + conscious-consumer clusters (Whole Foods, REI, farmers markets); college counties first. | CommercialCafe 2025/26 |
| First-pass metro pool | LA/OC · NYC–NJ · San Diego · Bay Area · DC · Chicago · Seattle · DFW · Minneapolis (Gen Z #1) · Atlanta · Tampa/Orlando (FL: $250K cottage cap) · Boston · Phoenix · Milwaukee · Austin · Raleigh | Scoring weights: Excel, "Location Framework" |
| Per trade area (500K people) | ≈45,000 nonemployer firms + ≈100,000 adults who seriously considered founding | Derived (Census NES ÷ population) |
The equation
One 100K sqft box → 1,001 positions
| Step | Value | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Leased area (GLA) | 100,000 sqft | Scenario input |
| − Public area | −40,000 | 40% obligation |
| + Mezzanine | +20,000 | 1/3 of net interior |
| + Parking open market | +12,000 | 1/10 of the 1.2x parking obligation (120,000 sqft) |
| = Programmable area | 92,000 sqft | Anchors 1/3 of GLA (33,333) · entrepreneurs 58,667 |
| Entrepreneur positions | 1,001 | 300 tables · 30 vitrines · 100 outdoor stalls · 12 studios · 36 micro-rooms · 51 desks · 25 benches · 13 stage slots · 14 pack stations · 420 visible-stock cages |
| Digital-twin lockers | 1,001 | Drop-off / return point (not counted as positions) |
| Anchor units | 8 brands + 6 street-food operators | TJ-type grocery, TJX-type off-price, appliances, electronics, bistro, café, wellness |
Full formulas, densities and per-floor checks live in the Space & Capacity Model (Excel) inside this package.
Sources
Read everything yourself
| Official | US Census (NES · BFS · BDS) · BLS · New York Fed · Treasury SSBCI · GAO · SBA & OIG · NEA · CBP |
|---|---|
| Industry | Etsy IR · Marketplace Pulse · Upwork Research · MBO Partners · Coresight · CoStar · Cushman & Wakefield · Capital One Shopping Research · IBISWorld · Savills · Prologis |
| Surveys | Bankrate · Intuit QuickBooks · LendingTree · Gusto · Wells Fargo |
| Demo market | Club Demonstration Services · CDS Vendor Packet (fees) · Advantage Solutions Q2 2026 · Street Teams Co · Think Nectar · MMCG |
| Location | ScrapeHero — Trader Joe's · CommercialCafe Gen Z · Institute for Justice — cottage food |
Estimates derived by Value Masters Academy are marked "est." or "derived" and are indicative, not projections. This index accompanies the full report "Below the Iceberg" (Word/PDF), the Space & Capacity Model (Excel) and the executive decks (EN/TR). Not an offer of securities or investment advice.